Bitcoin and Ethereum Face Worst Q1 in Years, Major Rally Unlikely

Bitcoin and Ethereum are on track to end the first quarter of 2025 in negative territory, with a sharp recovery appearing unlikely in the final days of March. Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal told that a significant upward movement before the quarter ends is improbable.

Market Performance

Ethereum (ETH) has dropped 37.98% so far in Q1 2025, marking its worst first-quarter decline since 2018, when it fell 46.61%, according to CoinGlass data. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) is down 6.49% this quarter, making it its worst Q1 performance since 2020, when it declined by 10.83%.

Limited Upside Before Quarter-End

Hundal explained that the crypto market may remain uncertain until mid-April when more details on former U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies become available. While economic indicators suggest global stability, significant market movements are not expected in the short term.

Potential for Future Recovery

Despite the current downtrend, some analysts anticipate Bitcoin’s next rally within weeks. On March 19, crypto analyst Colin Talks Crypto suggested that Bitcoin could see a major breakout by April 30. Additionally, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten estimated a greater than 50% chance of Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs before June ends.

Historically, Q1 has been strong for Ethereum and Bitcoin. Since 2017, Ethereum has averaged a 78.23% gain in Q1, while Bitcoin’s average Q1 return since 2013 stands at 51.62%.

Current Market Conditions

As of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $87,558, up 5.08% in 24 hours, while Ethereum is priced at $2,059, a 5.88% increase. However, the ETH/BTC ratio has dropped to its lowest since May 2020, currently at 0.2348, per TradingView data.

The broader crypto market has also mirrored this downward trend, with total market capitalization declining 11.65% since January 1, now standing at $2.88 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Impact of Economic Factors

Despite optimism at the start of Q1—especially after Bitcoin crossed $100,000 following Trump’s election win—macroeconomic factors have dampened momentum. Bitcoin’s retracement below $100,000 in February, influenced by Trump’s tariffs and uncertainty around U.S. interest rates, led to a shift in market sentiment. As of March 26, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered a “Neutral” score of 47, indicating cautious investor behavior.

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